Futures Thinking: How Universities Can Thrive in an Unpredictable World
Uncertainty, complexity and disruption have become the defining characteristics of our era, a constant refrain echoing through every sector, especially higher education. The familiar refrain that change is a constant barely scratches the surface of the unprecedented challenges we face, far surpassing anything experienced before the COVID-19 pandemic. A critical question now looms large: How do universities not only prepare and plan for a future that is rapidly evolving but also effectively innovate and support their students amidst such profound and swift transformations?
Launching the Strategic Foresight Team at Purdue Global
In 2021, we launched the Strategic Foresight Team at Purdue Global (PG) to help the university answer the question above. The first project the team worked on was to imagine four plausible scenarios for the future of the university in the year 2035. Through that work, we identified artificial intelligence (AI) as a strong driver of change. Right away, we started having conversations with university stakeholders about GPT-2, which was the latest tool from OpenAI at that time. We initiated discussions to explore the potential of a generative AI tool and its possible applications for students. The discussions were exciting for our team, but they seemed too futuristic for others. Less than a year later, OpenAI launched ChatGPT, and our work became critical for the institution. Building on this initial work, our team helped the university launch an AI task force in early 2023. This task force focused on educating students, faculty, staff and administrators about generative AI, exploring its potential uses and developing initial writing guidelines.
Our team’s work paid off. We were learning to use futures thinking to support the university with generative AI use and management, but our work didn’t stop there. We continued to strengthen this foresight muscle through several new projects. Our latest project involved envisioning a plausible Purdue Global portfolio of offerings for 2040. To achieve this portfolio, we analyzed signals of change, trends and drivers within the U.S. workforce. This analysis informed the generation of plausible scenarios, allowing us to evaluate how updated university curricula might meet future work needs. We are now actively integrating this knowledge into our day-to-day operations. When the university considers new offerings, we leverage the strategic foresight team’s insights to discuss how programs might support the various scenarios identified. Some faculty members are incorporating this content into their classes and are engaging students in discussions about the future workforce’s skills and demands.
What have we learned from this work? What signals should we pay attention to?
AI is a hot topic today, and we need to pay attention to it. Generative AI has pushed the envelope, and new products and models are being created. Thus, higher education institutions should be asking a new set of questions. For example, how can we make use of dream recorders to improve enhanced self-reflection, have another source of inspiration or share dream visuals with others to develop community? If our AI agents are becoming our coworkers, how do they get paid? As cities become more AI-powered, how can these services enhance various services and operations within the campus?
While the AI discussion is taking a lot of our energy, we also need to look for other signals that might affect the work we do. For example, how vulnerable is our region to water stress by 2050, and what specific impacts might we face? How can labs experiment with and utilize biological computers that combine human brain cells with silicon? How can quantum computing enhance sensitive data security, improve privacy and protect us from cyber threats?
By diligently tracking these and other diverse signals, from AI’s rapid evolution to environmental vulnerabilities and advancements in biological and quantum computing, universities can move beyond reactive measures and proactively shape their future. This continuous engagement with foresight not only prepares institutions for the unpredictable but also fosters a culture of innovation and empowers them to remain relevant and resilient in an ever-changing world.
How Universities Can Develop Futures Capacity
Like many transformative initiatives in higher education, developing futures capacity necessitates a dedicated, diverse team with strong leadership support. It was precisely the case at Purdue Global, where I was fortunate to have the chancellor’s and provost’s backing. Their support enabled us to assemble faculty, staff and administrators to explore plausible futures, fostering a new mindset and perspective on our collective work. Once the team is created, the group needs to actively track and analyze signals and drivers of change as well as trends within our industry and broader society, allowing the university to anticipate shifts and prepare for them. Learning to identify weak signals is often the most challenging yet ultimately most rewarding aspect of the process, as it is foundational to navigating uncertainty.
The presence of an experienced futures thinking facilitator is critical to support participants and ensure all voices are heard. Futures thinking work usually takes participants through a range of emotions as we discuss and challenge each other’s assumptions about the future of the topics under review. Fostering a culture of long-term thinking takes time, but it is gratifying, as participants implement or have further discussions about the issues at hand. For instance, our biweekly PG strategic foresight team meetings are marked by enthusiasm, as we share how our conversations about the plausible futures of work and higher education should influence our respective areas and how we engage with our students.
Research indicates that engaging more frequently and extensively with the long-term future enhances creativity. Building futures capacity in higher education thus requires teams to engage in scenario planning, leveraging this new knowledge to stress test current strategies and pinpoint areas for innovation. To facilitate this work, teams can utilize a range of futures tools. They might, for example, employ the futures wheel to explore the implications of specific drivers of change, find the 2x2 matrix invaluable for developing scenarios and practice backcasting to determine actions needed to shape a preferred future, while identifying signals that could prompt strategic adjustments over time.
Benefits of Developing Futures Thinking Capacity
Purdue Global benefited from the work of the strategic foresight team, as this group was at the forefront of the generative AI discussions. Participants on the team have also demonstrated a strong enthusiasm for innovation and a willingness to think differently about their work. Moreover, some students are being encouraged to think about plausible scenarios and use futures thinking tools during their classwork. The unprecedented times we live in require us to use frameworks to address these challenges proactively rather than react to them. Understanding what is at the edge of change is a critical skill for individuals and organizations alike.
By anticipating future trends, especially in areas like technology and workforce needs, universities can ensure their offerings remain relevant to students and employers, thereby securing their long-term sustainability. Moreover, futures thinking provides valuable input for strategic planning by helping universities identify potential opportunities for innovation and mitigate potential risks. This proactive approach is essential for effective decision making.
Beyond merely preparing for what’s to come, futures thinking empowers institutions to cultivate innovation and embrace emergence. It is no longer enough for higher education to passively react to external forces; instead, it’s time for universities to actively engage with what-if scenarios and decisively become the architects of their own destinies, shaping a relevant and resilient future for themselves and their students.
Orgininally published on: https://evolllution.com/futures-thinking-how-universities-can-thrive-in-an-unpredictable-world
